Québec Housing Growth Act

Housing supply and the reference scenario

The supplied model uses 58,260 annualized housing starts as its 2026 reference level. Its central scenario is 68,000 annual starts, or 9,740 incremental units. The 65,000–70,000 range represents successful implementation scenarios, not official forecasts. The model measures additional construction relative to the reference level rather than attributing all housing growth to the Act.

Investment, value added and employment

At an assumed $325,000 of construction investment per incremental unit, the central scenario produces approximately $3.17 billion of additional investment and $2.39 billion of GDP/value added. The 0.756 value-added parameter is a broad input-output anchor, not a residential-construction-specific multiplier.

The employment range is approximately 24,000–44,000 job-years over the construction cycle, using 2.5–4.5 job-years per incremental unit. These figures do not represent permanent jobs. The document also tests construction costs between $300,000 and $350,000 per unit.

Class 4D property-tax treatment

In the model, a new development qualifies when at least 20% of its units are affordable rental housing under an affordability agreement. Meeting that threshold triggers tax relief for the entire qualifying project: a 100% exemption in years 1–5 and a 40% reduction in years 6–20.

At an assumed $300,000 assessed value and 1.0% effective tax rate, the 20-year cost is $33,000 per unit on a flat tax base, or approximately $38,500 with 2% annual assessment growth. For a qualifying cohort of 10,000 units, that is approximately $330 million or $385 million respectively. Existing qualifying properties receive a 40% annual reduction; the same central assumptions imply $1,200 per unit annually.

Municipal Housing Growth Dividend

The draft proposes a base payment of $5,000 per completed residential unit, with additional bonuses for selected categories. The model illustrates approximately $48.7 million if paid on 9,740 incremental completions, compared with approximately $340 million if paid on all 68,000 completed units. Whether the dividend applies to incremental, target-based or all completions remains a drafting choice identified in the document.

Affordability and fiscal accountability

The document pairs provincial supply growth with the need for Montréal-specific targets and faster approvals near transit and employment centres. An easing overall rental market does not establish that the most affordable units are adequately supplied.

Modelled public revenues are gross amounts before program costs. A complete fiscal framework must account for the dividend, reimbursement of municipal property-tax relief, administration, enforcement and infrastructure. The number and assessed value of qualifying properties remain major unresolved cost inputs.

Full technical economic and fiscal model

This page summarizes the supplied August 2026 model. Download the original English PDF for all scenarios, affordability evidence, tax-cost tables, international comparisons, drafting recommendations and sources.