Trade Economics: Quantified Impacts

Three pillars of trade and competitiveness

The annex examines removing interprovincial trade barriers, managing the Canada–U.S. relationship and diversifying export markets. Its quantitative analysis concentrates on internal trade, where multiple economic models are available. The other two pillars are discussed more descriptively because comparable Quebec-specific models were not identified.

Internal trade: method and range of estimates

Where a study provides only a national estimate, the annex applies Quebec’s approximately 19.7% share of Canadian nominal GDP. This is a proportional calculation, not a Quebec-specific economic model. The annex presents disagreement across sources rather than selecting a single estimate as definitive.

It distinguishes partial barrier reduction from full liberalization, annual gains from cumulative output, and national estimates from Quebec-scaled equivalents. These scenarios should not be added together. The source tables identify the studies, time horizons and status of each figure.

Household income and public revenue

Income estimates come from different sources and use different underlying scenarios and measurement bases. They illustrate a range and are not additive. For provincial revenue, the annex applies an illustrative own-source revenue-to-GDP ratio of approximately 25% to selected GDP estimates. This is original arithmetic for the document, not a fiscal forecast.

The annex also discusses critiques of the economic models and the practical difficulty of changing some exceptions. Removing trade barriers is presented as one potential contribution to affordability, not a complete solution to grocery prices.

Canada–U.S. relations

The annex discusses stable trading relations and provincial choices concerning retaliatory measures and procurement. It distinguishes those provincial measures from federal responsibility for tariffs and bilateral trade agreements.

The document’s trade developments are a dated snapshot as of August 25, 2026. Its account of a meeting with a U.S. senator is explicitly attributed to the party and described as not independently confirmed at the time of writing.

Export diversification

The third pillar considers reducing dependence on a single export market. The annex does not assign a Quebec-specific GDP gain to further diversification because it did not identify a credible model for that figure. It recommends commissioning such analysis rather than publishing an unsupported estimate.

Full technical and statistical annex

This page summarizes the supplied August 2026 annex. Download the original English PDF for the complete tables, charts, economic comparisons, dated trade context, methodological limitations and source-status register.